Frozen in Fear

Forum for the discussion of the Feldsted Friends newsletter.
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WestViking
Posts: 80
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:45 am

Frozen in Fear

Post by WestViking »

Government communication on the coronavirus epidemic are filled with double-talk, reversals and flip-flops and are thus incoherent.

Governments claim that they are required to follow health care officer advice. That is not correct. Governments are elected to govern and must balance health care advice against fiscal management and economic factors.

Health care officers have been focused on coronavirus without consideration of the detrimental effect of prolonged isolation and neglected to consider the huge risks in personal care facilities, jails, prisons, remote areas, reserves and work camps where isolation and social distancing are impossible.

We have been told over and over that if we have any exposure to the virus we must quarantine for 14 days, watch for symptoms, and if none appear, we are good to go. Most infected people ride out recovery at home, not in hospital.

It follows that when we had been in quarantine for 21 days, further isolation is not needed. To be extra sure, 28 days of isolation (double the normal period) should have accomplished anything there is to accomplish through a general quarantine.

Significant milestones in the efforts to combat the virus have not been reported.
• On May 10, the number of virus recoveries exceeded the number of active cases for the first time and have remained dominant since.
• On May 30, we hit the maximum number of active cases. They have been declining since.

On May 7, we hit the lowest recovery rate since the epidemic began – 86.79% The recovery rate (recoveries / recoveries + deaths) has slowly but steadily increased to 88.6% on June 27. Those rates include the losses of life in personal care facilities. If we extract the care facility deaths, the recovery rate for the remaining population exceeds 97%. That is a very high recovery rate.

It seems governments prefer the initial dire predictions of health care experts rather than the actual results. Reporting the total number of cases and deaths is deceptive. Total cases include both active cases that have been steadily diminishing, and recoveries that have been steadily increasing.

VIRUS STATS.jpg
VIRUS STATS.jpg (24.52 KiB) Viewed 51 times
Over the past 45 days, active cases have reduced by 10.5%, recoveries have increased by 105.5%, deaths increased by 74.9% and total cases increased by 49.1%. When we include recoveries we get a far different picture than when we look at total cases and deaths in isolation.
NOTE: current figures are not completely accurate as on June 25 Quebec arbitrarily decided to stop publishing coronavirus results. After a backlash, Quebec has agreed to publish numbers again Monday (today).

Why are governments pretending that they can only allow us limited freedoms to resume our normal lives and telling us that face masks and social distancing are future requirements.

Governments have had 90 days to put teams in place to identify new outbreaks and do the necessary work to identify people exposed to quarantine the ill and exposed.

Where is the income replacement plan for the people newly infected or exposed and required to quarantine? That is key to public cooperation. Too many people cannot afford 14 days off which will include at least 10 working days. They need assurance that the quarantine will still allow them to pay the rent and buy groceries. This targeted income replacement will reduce the risk of people going to work ill as they cannot afford to do otherwise.

We can accept that an initial general quarantine was needed as any alternative appeared to be too risky. We do not know if social distancing is required to avoid a surge in infections. We know that current case increases are driven by recoveries, not new infections. Over the past 45 days, 100% of case increase has been due to recoveries.

We need honesty from our governments. They cannot justify extending March emergency measures indefinitely. They cannot maintain that they can only control virus spread by controlling us.

We are free people with constitutional and inherent rights that have been trampled on for too long. We elect governments to protect our rights and freedoms, not to curtail or restrict them. Government cannot hide under health care skirts and avoid governing prudently and responsibly. That farce has played itself out.

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Free Markets
Posts: 54
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:34 pm

Re: Frozen in Fear

Post by Free Markets »

The increase in the recovery rate may be due to increased testing. Initially, only those with covid symptoms were tested. The expansion in testing will spot those with mild infections who recovery quickly.

What is strange is that the case mortality rate has gone up from 7% in May to 8.25% in June.

WestViking
Posts: 80
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:45 am

Re: Frozen in Fear

Post by WestViking »

Those are not mortality rates. Mortality rates are by definition the rate of deaths in a population, not the number of deaths in coronavirus totals. The coronavirus mortality rate in May was 0.0129% and in June was 0.0226%. The latter figure is not scary; 1/50 of 1% which is why it is not published.

We know how many people have recovered from infection and how many have died. Add the two together to get the number of cases where we know the outcome. Divide the recoveries by the total gives us a recovery rate. In the table above, the recovery rate in June was 86.8% and in June was 88.6%. Those numbers include the personal care facility deaths. The recovery rate is steadily (but fractionally) climbing.

Over 2,640,315 people have been tested for COVID-19 in Canada. This corresponds to a test rate of 70,241 per 1 million people. Of all people tested, 3.6% have been found to be positive.

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Free Markets
Posts: 54
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:34 pm

Re: Frozen in Fear

Post by Free Markets »

In virology population mortality rates are irrelevant. The two that matter are the infection mortality rate (IMR) and the case mortality rate (CMR). To the average person, it's the IMR that is talked about: If I get the disease, what is the chance of me dieing? Publicized flu mortality rates are IMRs. The CMR is based on those who have been diagnosed with covid.

Anyway, the point is that the death rate was higher in June than May regardless of what you want to use as the denominator.

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