Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

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John Feldsted
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Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by John Feldsted »

"There could be an effective and safe vaccine, perhaps in 2021."

The Canadian Press
HuffPost
09/02/2020

OTTAWA — Canadians will need to roll up their sleeves and get vaccinated in large numbers to finally corral COVID-19 before life can return to a semblance of its pre-pandemic state, Canada’s top public health officers said Tuesday.

“Widespread vaccine uptake is the best shot Canadians have in regaining some of what we’ve lost and returning to things that we cherish — things like holding family and friends closely, having community events and living our lives without the fear of contracting the disease,” said Dr. Theresa Tam, the country’s chief medical officer.

Tam and her deputy, Dr. Howard Njoo, offered that assessment one day after the Trudeau government announced the latest instalment in its plan to pre-buy tens of millions of doses of potential vaccines, signing deals with two American firms.

The newest deals will allow Canada to buy as many as 76 million doses of a vaccine candidate from Maryland-based biotech company Novavax, and up to 38 million doses of the vaccine being developed by Johnson & Johnson’s pharmaceutical company Janssen Inc.

Last month, the government signed similar deals with U.S. companies Pfizer and Moderna that would give Canada access to up to 76 million more doses.

Njoo said it is not clear what percentage of Canadians will need to get vaccinated to achieve broad immunity but “the more Canadians that take advantage, the better.”

Both physicians evoked the dark days of forced quarantines, school closures and bans on public gatherings during the measles and polio outbreaks of the 1930s, ’40s and ’50s.

“Most of us are lucky. We have not had to live through these types of measures because of safe and effective vaccines for these diseases,” said Tam.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/vac ... cahpmgnews

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“Both physicians evoked the dark days of forced quarantines, school closures and bans on public gatherings during the measles and polio outbreaks of the 1930s, ’40s and ’50s.”

What ‘dark days’ of the ’30s, ’40s, and ’50s? There were no widespread forced quarantines, school closures and bans on public gatherings in Canada.

We have never had the forced quarantine an entire healthy population, forced closures of the majority of private and public facilities and bans on all public gatherings until this year. There is no historic justification for the current lockdowns.

The Canadian political response to COVID has presented far greater risks to our financial and mental health than the virus itself. Adding insult to injury our governments are casually threatening our freedoms, rights as well as our personal safety and security, and expect to be congratulated for their obscene efforts.

Canada was a far better place when we could distinguish between our political and health care officials and an episode of the Keystone Kops.

As of the 31st of August Canada had a total of 128,884 COVID cases. They consisted of
CORONAVIRUS CASES IN CANADA
AUGUST 31, 2020
Active 5,595 4.34%
Recovered 114,227 88.58%
Deaths 9,126 7.08%
TOTAL CASES 128,948 100.00%

Total cases on the 31 of July were 116,312. At the end of August they were 128,948. The increase during August was 12,636 cases or 10.86%. During the month of August, active cases reduced by 555 cases. Recoveries increased by 13,000 cases. There were 191 additional deaths. 13,000 recoveries + 191 deaths – 555 active cases = 12,636.

Of the 12,636 increase in total cases, almost all were attributable to recoveries. Only 1.5% were attributable to deaths. Active cases were reduced. The recovery rate (recoveries / recoveries + deaths) at the end of August was 92.6% which includes the horrific loss of life in personal care facilities. Of the 9,126 deaths recorded to the end of August, 7,022 (76.9%) were residents of long term care facilities. If we exclude long term care facility deaths from end of August statistics, the recovery rate for the general population is 98.2%.

The notion that governments can keep arbitrarily extending a “state of emergency” is as ludicrous as is the concept that governments can arbitrarily lock us away or restrict our activities indefinitely to save us from COVID infection. So far, COVID has infected 0.34% of our population. The majority of those infected recover - at home. Hospitalizations of infected people are about 1% of active cases.

Young people have been penned up for 6 months and are going to socialize and get up close. We cannot regulate human behaviour. They put others at risk which is irresponsible, but so is drinking or taking drugs and then driving. There are some risks we have to accept, and no government can stop COVID.

The majority take reasonable precautions to avid infection. That is all we can do. Beating us is not going to improve morale.

The notion that irresponsible people are going to self quarantine if they are exposed is not rational. We don’t have the people to monitor them. Contact tracing is not useful unless those identified comply with orders to quarantine. Over to you Dr. Tam.

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Connie Fournier
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by Connie Fournier »

This is some creepy stuff right there! Dr. Tam needs to go away.
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kinarow
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by kinarow »

The best chance for a 'normal' life can ONLY be achieved after the Chinese dragon is slayed. That is what is required.

DA_Champion
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by DA_Champion »

Obviously.

I just took the flu vaccine last week. It's probably not a good year to get sick, on the other hand ... The incidence of flu will probably be a lot lower this winter.
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DA_Champion
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by DA_Champion »

It's petty of me to say it but I would be amused by the cognitive dissonance among White liberal moderates if the first adequate vaccine comes from China or even worse, from evil Russia.

They're convinced that the USA is an otherwise socioeconomically healthy country and that its problems are due to the Trump historical accident and things that Republicans do like racism. That is an incomplete truth at best.

Another, comparably large portion of the truth is that white-collar culture in the USA, including academics, scientists, consultants, administrators, etc making $100,000-$500,000 also have their own failings, and are also part of the problem. They're convinced that the best science in the works always happens here but I'm not convinced that this is still true.
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

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Watch the Left become the anti-vaxxers if the vaccine comes from Russia! :))
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Free Markets
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

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John Feldsted wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:02 pm Of the 12,636 increase in total cases, almost all were attributable to recoveries. Only 1.5% were attributable to deaths.
Don't know why you keep riding this irrelevant statistic. Cases aren't attributable to recoveries but the converse is true. Mainly though, you are comparing something that has to happen within a month (change in cases) to a quantity that only partially related to that month's cases and mostly to cases in prior months. When cases start to steadily decline, you will see recoveries more than 100% of new cases. Will that prove that the numbers are a scam?

John Feldsted
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by John Feldsted »

Free Markets wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:14 pm
John Feldsted wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:02 pm Of the 12,636 increase in total cases, almost all were attributable to recoveries. Only 1.5% were attributable to deaths.
Don't know why you keep riding this irrelevant statistic. Cases aren't attributable to recoveries but the converse is true. Mainly though, you are comparing something that has to happen within a month (change in cases) to a quantity that only partially related to that month's cases and mostly to cases in prior months. When cases start to steadily decline, you will see recoveries more than 100% of new cases. Will that prove that the numbers are a scam?
Recoveries are included in case totals. As recoveries increase, active cases decrease, but case totals continue to climb. Over the past 31 days, the increase in recoveries has exceeded the increase in active cases every single day.

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Free Markets
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

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John Feldsted wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:06 pm Recoveries are included in case totals. As recoveries increase, active cases decrease, but case totals continue to climb. Over the past 31 days, the increase in recoveries has exceeded the increase in active cases every single day.
Yes but it means nothing. Of course recoveries are included in total cases. C = R + A + D is an identity. Each day C, A and D are calculated and R determined as the residual, R = C - A - D.

The problem is when you get into changes in the variables. Changes in C and D are determined within the day but changes in R and A depend almost entirely on previous days. C and R aren't in sync.

Suppose over 4 days total cases are 140, 170, 190 and 200 with 200 being today, day 1. New cases are (3) 30, (2) 20 and (1) 10. Say 1/3 of new cases recover each day. To start assume no deaths. The increase in R day 1 is (30 + 20 + 10)/3 = 20. Therefore, new cases = 10, new recoveries = 20 and new actives must be -10. Recoveries are 200% of new cases and > new actives.

Adding deaths doesn't much matter. Say deaths are 2, 2, 1 and 1. New cases after deaths are 28, 19 and 9. Redo the math and the results are nearly the same.

When total cases are growing but at a reducing rate, you will find new recoveries close to or exceeding new cases and consequently more than new recoveries. It's a misleading and worthless relationship.

John Feldsted
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by John Feldsted »

In short, if the large majority (98% +) of current COVID victims recover rather than die it is not significant.

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Free Markets
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by Free Markets »

If you are saying that if D/C = 2%, then it's not a dangerous disease, OK. But your analysis doesn't show that. What if D/C = 6.9%?
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid ... cases.html

DA_Champion
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by DA_Champion »

Free Markets wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:32 pm
John Feldsted wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:06 pm Recoveries are included in case totals. As recoveries increase, active cases decrease, but case totals continue to climb. Over the past 31 days, the increase in recoveries has exceeded the increase in active cases every single day.
Yes but it means nothing. Of course recoveries are included in total cases. C = R + A + D is an identity. Each day C, A and D are calculated and R determined as the residual, R = C - A - D.

The problem is when you get into changes in the variables. Changes in C and D are determined within the day but changes in R and A depend almost entirely on previous days. C and R aren't in sync.

Suppose over 4 days total cases are 140, 170, 190 and 200 with 200 being today, day 1. New cases are (3) 30, (2) 20 and (1) 10. Say 1/3 of new cases recover each day. To start assume no deaths. The increase in R day 1 is (30 + 20 + 10)/3 = 20. Therefore, new cases = 10, new recoveries = 20 and new actives must be -10. Recoveries are 200% of new cases and > new actives.

Adding deaths doesn't much matter. Say deaths are 2, 2, 1 and 1. New cases after deaths are 28, 19 and 9. Redo the math and the results are nearly the same.

When total cases are growing but at a reducing rate, you will find new recoveries close to or exceeding new cases and consequently more than new recoveries. It's a misleading and worthless relationship.
Sorry - what's "A" in this notation?
John Feldsted wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:30 pm In short, if the large majority (98% +) of current COVID victims recover rather than die it is not significant.
That might be acceptably true if the 98% fully recovered, but long-covid appears to be serious. A friend of mine who is in her 30s and was a marathon runner has had a very hard time with the resulting chronic fatigue.
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Free Markets
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by Free Markets »

A = active cases.

John Feldsted
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Re: Canada's Health Officials Say A Vaccine Is Best Chance For 'Normal' Life

Post by John Feldsted »

John Feldsted wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:30 pm In short, if the large majority (98% +) of current COVID victims recover rather than die it is not significant.
That might be acceptably true if the 98% fully recovered, but long-covid appears to be serious. A friend of mine who is in her 30s and was a marathon runner has had a very hard time with the resulting chronic fatigue.
We do have a very high recovery rate but your concern over long-term effects is well taken. My daughter had a COVID infection and since has severe headaches which are new and unusual. We do not know what long-term effects are or how prevalent they may be. That is not sufficient reason for the hysterical fear our governments raise.

I had an incident years ago when I had a severe cold, more likely flu, and tried to shrug it off and work through it. I would up with severe pneumonia and am now at risk for reinfection. Coronavirus in its many guises is nothing to fool with. COVID is another manifestation of a family of infections that endanger our health.

We normally take extra precautions in the fall and early winter when the 'flu season' arrives. We were unprepared for flu that is highly active in the spring and summer months. We now have a year-round flu season and have to adjust accordingly.

I am not suggesting that we dismiss COVID as harmless. Experience shows otherwise. We need to be careful and cautious but cannot allow a virus epidemic to rule our lives.

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