Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

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Connie Fournier
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Connie Fournier »

The governments "aren't sure"? Fine, I will tell them.

No. No, we can't handle it, and I suspect a lot of people WON'T handle it.

We were told in the beginning that, even if we did the lockdown perfectly, there were going to be a massive number of casualties from this pandemic. We agreed to stay home to, hopefully, keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

The hospitals were nowhere near overwhelmed, so it is time to protect our vulnerable and open back up again.

Anything else is unacceptable, and will be rightly construed as an anti-democratic government power grab.
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Ursus
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Ursus »

Invoke another lockdown and you pretty much kiss any veneer of civilized society goodbye.

To quote Corb Lund:
"Getting down on the mountain, getting down on the mountain
Don't wanna be around when the sh*t goes down
I'll be gettin on down the mountain......
.....I think I see a rip in the social fabric; brother can you pass the ammo?"
Da pacem, Domine, in diebus nostris
Quia non est alius
Qui pugnet pro nobis
Nisi tu Deus noster.

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Connie Fournier
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Connie Fournier »

Ursus wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:45 pm
Invoke another lockdown and you pretty much kiss any veneer of civilized society goodbye.
Yes, we are getting close. People who are living their comfortable lives in their spacious houses with their full incomes, going online and calling those who are trying desperately to survive "COVIDIOTS", isn't going to fly much longer.
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Duane Berke
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Duane Berke »

Canadians maybe but certainly not Americans. Numbers are spiking again down south with the floodgates opened. We've seen protest riots; guns brandished in Walmart, and at least one supermarket employee shot dead for insisting a customer wear a mask or leave.

Large crowds surround the Governor's home in Connecticut 24/7 honking horns and screeching over bull horns about (wait for it...) communism. This is a home where children sleep. I fear for the USA when outrageous new case numbers and deaths call for locking down again.

Canadians, I'm not so worried about. Yes, I got my hair cut but I'm sick of eating at home. However, the lives of my neighbours are more important. I'm in a 55+ building but 20 years younger than most. They're terrified to go out and I've been picking up things at the market for people. You won't see them downtown marching for Boston Pizza or Olive Garden to reopen.
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Duane Berke
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Duane Berke »

Here's a piece this morning on violence in retail outlets stateside.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-r ... mer-attack
"When you get to the end zone, act like you've been there before." - Vince Lombardi

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Free Markets
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Free Markets »

A problem is that the focus of the Covid fight has changed. Initially it was to flatten the curve: push infections forward in time to avoid a spike in cases that would overwhelm the heath system. The lockdown helped do that and now we have to open up and accept the infections that were avoided before. But the focus has changed to avoiding all infections, an impossible goal. Protect the vulnerable and test, test, test but open up.

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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by DA_Champion »

Free Markets wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 1:14 pm
A problem is that the focus of the Covid fight has changed. Initially it was to flatten the curve: push infections forward in time to avoid a spike in cases that would overwhelm the heath system. The lockdown helped do that and now we have to open up and accept the infections that were avoided before. But the focus has changed to avoiding all infections, an impossible goal. Protect the vulnerable and test, test, test but open up.
There may be a hope that the economy will come back if the governors order businesses to re-ope, but I don't see that happening. It may do more harm than good.

Right now the losses are being collectivized, which is (given the historical record) offensive to many conservatives but this is likely a once-in-a-century event. We can't just go back to how things were, not yet, because even if businesses open again, people are not going to go back. A lot of businesses in the private sector operate on razor-thin profit margins, most famously the restaurant industry. They won't survive if they open up but some 20-30% of their customers fail to come back because they're still scared of infecting either themselves or their loved ones.

I suspect that we won't really be able to open up again until treatments have improved enough for the public to regain confidence. I'd estimate that will take between 6 and 24 months. Alternatively, East Asian countries are now nearly completely opened up, but they were a lot more aggressive in their quarantine efforts and in their masking.

Separately, if the curve shifts from flattening to steepening, this time with a lot of deaths in a lot more places than New York and LA, we will see a lot more damage to public trust.
Canadian expatriate living and working in the USA.

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Free Markets
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Free Markets »

DA_Champion wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 1:48 pm
We can't just go back to how things were, not yet, because even if businesses open again, people are not going to go back. A lot of businesses in the private sector operate on razor-thin profit margins, most famously the restaurant industry. They won't survive if they open up but some 20-30% of their customers fail to come back because they're still scared of infecting either themselves or their loved ones.
Not all will survive opening up but it is guaranteed that none will survive if forced to remain closed. No sales does not improve the profit no matter what the margin.

Let's have freedom of choice. Those who want to restart their business are free to do so and those who are willing to be customers are free to do so. Those who are afraid are free to stay home.

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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by DA_Champion »

Free Markets wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 3:18 pm
DA_Champion wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 1:48 pm
We can't just go back to how things were, not yet, because even if businesses open again, people are not going to go back. A lot of businesses in the private sector operate on razor-thin profit margins, most famously the restaurant industry. They won't survive if they open up but some 20-30% of their customers fail to come back because they're still scared of infecting either themselves or their loved ones.
Not all will survive opening up but it is guaranteed that none will survive if forced to remain closed. No sales does not improve the profit no matter what the margin.

Let's have freedom of choice. Those who want to restart their business are free to do so and those who are willing to be customers are free to do so. Those who are afraid are free to stay home.
The virus is a collective hit on our system, so there's a sensible case for collective action. You can also think of government response as an insurance pool -- it's known that insurance pools are more efficient if the pools are larger. A collective bailout is the only way to avoid a great depression.

It's not as though the insurance companies are going to pay. They'll just declare that they don't want to pay, and hire expensive lawyers to support their position. No restaurant owner, no yoga studio manager, nobody selling bicycle parts will be able to take them to court and win.

You call it freedom of choice, but it's an uninformed choice, and universally so. People don't know basic things like what government policies are going to be in their and in neighbouring jurisdictions for that matter. In general, it's also not known to what extent reopening up will lead to a second surge.

There are also many externalities to consider. If you open up, are you infecting others?

Nota Bene: I live on a jurisdiction with a high infection and mortality rate.
Canadian expatriate living and working in the USA.

Duke Atriedes
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Duke Atriedes »

Since being a Canadian means being compliant and obedient there won’t be a problem.

Can’t believe what a bunch of snowflakes the world is. 300000 deaths and all hell breaks loose

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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Duke Atriedes »

Connie Fournier wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:18 am
The governments "aren't sure"? Fine, I will tell them.

No. No, we can't handle it, and I suspect a lot of people WON'T handle it.

We were told in the beginning that, even if we did the lockdown perfectly, there were going to be a massive number of casualties from this pandemic. We agreed to stay home to, hopefully, keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

The hospitals were nowhere near overwhelmed, so it is time to protect our vulnerable and open back up again.

Anything else is unacceptable, and will be rightly construed as an anti-democratic government power grab.
I agree we were completely deceived not only told too see a 3 % death rate when it is 0.4 % but also building thousands of ventilators no one needed. We played a big joke on ourselves

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Connie Fournier
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Connie Fournier »

It wouldn't be so bad if they weren't still trying to peddle the fear porn.
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DA_Champion
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by DA_Champion »

Duke Atriedes wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:56 pm
Since being a Canadian means being compliant and obedient there won’t be a problem.

Can’t believe what a bunch of snowflakes the world is. 300000 deaths and all hell breaks loose
The United States is now at 98,000 deaths and counting. It's unclear what that number will converge to, that depends both on some uncertain science, uncertain government and public policies, and an uncertain public response to those policies. But it's clear that it could easily be several hundred thousand.

In contrast, traffic fatalities in the USA total 40,000/year, gun fatalities total the same with two thirds of those being suicides, and the original 9/11 attacks totaled 3,000 deaths. For reasons that can be debated, the first two are not taken seriously, in general nobody cares, and the latter was taken very seriously. All three are due to a combination of dismal government policies that is exacerbated by imperfections in public culture.

Separate from the current 98,000 deaths and counting, a lot more people are going to face severe long-term health problems due to permanent lung damage, etc, and the medical system is close to the brink. It's not a good time to be an ER doctor. I doubt that hearing about snowbirds flying makes them feel that much better.

There is plenty to discuss about the government response to coronavirus, but it is wrong to dismiss it as something less than a serious problem.

But I understand that most of you guys are living in Canada. You're less at risk, the virus simply never took as much of a hold there. For example:

British Columbia, 5.1 million people, 2517 cases, 157 deaths
Maryland, 6.0 people, 45,495 cases, 2,130 deaths.

In total, the USA has ~9x the population of Canada, but has had ~15x the number of deaths.
Canadian expatriate living and working in the USA.

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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Connie Fournier »

DA_Champion

I think it is really important to look at regional differences, too, and I don't think that is being done very much. For instance, Toronto is getting a lot of cases, but three hours away in Kingston, we have had barely any. We might have two people sick right now. The province won't let us loosen our restrictions, though.

Provinces like Saskatchewan have barely been touched.

I really think that the policies should be made more on a local level because you have the same thing in the US with some of the midwestern states having barely been touched.
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by DA_Champion »

Connie Fournier wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:55 pm
DA_Champion

I think it is really important to look at regional differences, too, and I don't think that is being done very much. For instance, Toronto is getting a lot of cases, but three hours away in Kingston, we have had barely any. We might have two people sick right now. The province won't let us loosen our restrictions, though.

Provinces like Saskatchewan have barely been touched.

I really think that the policies should be made more on a local level because you have the same thing in the US with some of the midwestern states having barely been touched.
Hopefully !
Canadian expatriate living and working in the USA.

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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by WestViking »

What "lockdown"? That is a government euphemism for quarantine, and we have a whole nation including people who are healthy and unaffected under a national quarantine for the first time in recorded history. Quarantines have been around for centuries, and the concept of isolating ill people to stop the spread of infections is well recorded.

The term "quarantine" comes from 14th century Venetian quarantena (forty) as at the time ships, passengers and cargo were held in isolation for that long to prevent the spread of diseases and pests.

When word firs emerged that China had quarantined Wuhan province with several million people required to remain in their homes, we were astonished, but felt hat could only happen in a totalitarian state. None of us would have guessed that three months later, democratic nations would be doing the same thing.

Where did we get the idea that the only way to stop the spread of coronavirus was to quarantine healthy people. That is a radical change from the traditional and no one had any idea of how severe the fallout would be. Our governments have managed to turn a crisis into a disaster.

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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Duke Atriedes »

DA_Champion wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:42 pm
Duke Atriedes wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:56 pm
Since being a Canadian means being compliant and obedient there won’t be a problem.

Can’t believe what a bunch of snowflakes the world is. 300000 deaths and all hell breaks loose
The United States is now at 98,000 deaths and counting. It's unclear what that number will converge to, that depends both on some uncertain science, uncertain government and public policies, and an uncertain public response to those policies. But it's clear that it could easily be several hundred thousand.

In contrast, traffic fatalities in the USA total 40,000/year, gun fatalities total the same with two thirds of those being suicides, and the original 9/11 attacks totaled 3,000 deaths. For reasons that can be debated, the first two are not taken seriously, in general nobody cares, and the latter was taken very seriously. All three are due to a combination of dismal government policies that is exacerbated by imperfections in public culture.

Separate from the current 98,000 deaths and counting, a lot more people are going to face severe long-term health problems due to permanent lung damage, etc, and the medical system is close to the brink. It's not a good time to be an ER doctor. I doubt that hearing about snowbirds flying makes them feel that much better.

There is plenty to discuss about the government response to coronavirus, but it is wrong to dismiss it as something less than a serious problem.

But I understand that most of you guys are living in Canada. You're less at risk, the virus simply never took as much of a hold there. For example:

British Columbia, 5.1 million people, 2517 cases, 157 deaths
Maryland, 6.0 people, 45,495 cases, 2,130 deaths.

In total, the USA has ~9x the population of Canada, but has had ~15x the number of deaths.
100,000 is still a nothing burger. Various heart diseases kill 500,000 a year in the USA. We were told about a million deaths and it is no where near that. And in fact most hospitals are empty in the USA and there was no rush they promised.

Every country is different. The Guardian laughably was sneering at the USA death number by looking at them nominally but the UK death rate is much higher than the USA.

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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Duke Atriedes »

WestViking wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 9:15 pm
What "lockdown"? That is a government euphemism for quarantine, and we have a whole nation including people who are healthy and unaffected under a national quarantine for the first time in recorded history. Quarantines have been around for centuries, and the concept of isolating ill people to stop the spread of infections is well recorded.

The term "quarantine" comes from 14th century Venetian quarantena (forty) as at the time ships, passengers and cargo were held in isolation for that long to prevent the spread of diseases and pests.

When word firs emerged that China had quarantined Wuhan province with several million people required to remain in their homes, we were astonished, but felt hat could only happen in a totalitarian state. None of us would have guessed that three months later, democratic nations would be doing the same thing.

Where did we get the idea that the only way to stop the spread of coronavirus was to quarantine healthy people. That is a radical change from the traditional and no one had any idea of how severe the fallout would be. Our governments have managed to turn a crisis into a disaster.
The entire response is insanely stupid and lacks all good and common sense. Quarantine should have been the answer. A hundred or so going to church was never going to present a health issue. I bet all the social distancing has barely affected the death rate in any meaningful way.

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Duane Berke
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Re: Can Canadians handle another lockdown? Our governments aren’t sure

Post by Duane Berke »

I've attended park picnics, group walks and motorcycle gatherings locally. Safe distancing has been mandatory and observed. I don't see it as a "have" vs. "have not" issue. I see it from an aspect of safety, health and life - with respect for others. Perhaps these "have nots" (which I don't believe) have no respect for anyone else but themselves and no regard for the lives of others. They should be handled accordingly. I've worked a hundred inner-city lunches for the homeless to sort out who's who. So many are decent and kind people who humbly follow instructions.

What we saw in Trawna was selfish and vile, not to mention reflecting an utter lack of leadership - which is no surprise in PAYbec or OntariOWE. I would have surrounded the joint and issued $1,000. citations to everyone. A second offence would be $2,500. The lives of others are more important than anybody's "right" to violate safe space or get a suntan. Why does central Canada always embarrass us?
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